Solar and storage 2025: US policy risks and the new global market landscape
The US PV market faces transformative policy shifts, primarily centered on anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) targeting modules and cells imported from Southeast Asia. These measures are restructuring the non-China PV supply chain, notably after the US Department of Commerce revised duty rates for Vietnamese and Malaysian manufacturers in December 2024—a move impacting key suppliers and overall supply dynamics.
AD preliminary ruling: Vietnam
Jinko: increased from 56.4% to 71.74%
Boviet: increased from 54.46% to 60.02%
Trina, EliTe Solar, VSUN, and others: increased from 54.35% to 59.91%
AD preliminary ruling: Malaysia
Jinko and the "All Others" rate: reduced from 17.84% to 6.43%.
US PV market: AD/CVD duties on four Southeast Asian countries are reshaping market competition
Despite ongoing AD/CVD duty fluctuations, PV module exports from Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia) to the U.S. have plummeted. For PV cells, the U.S. remains import-dependent until domestic production scales up, with tariff pressures likely shifting sourcing away from these four nations. Malaysian suppliers—benefiting from lower tariffs—are poised to become the second-largest short-term cell source after non-AD/CVD products.
Domestically, First Solar remains insulated from trade disputes and is projected to hold ~20% of the U.S. market. While crystalline silicon module imports surpassed the 12.5 GW duty-free quota (DFQ) in 2024, signaling rising local module capacity, only a handful of U.S. cell producers commenced operations by late 2024. As domestic cell output expands, overall supply is expected to grow further in 2025.
US PV market: stagnation risks and uncertainty surrounding IRA subsidies
Despite the U.S. government’s push for domestic manufacturing, current cell and module production capacity still falls short of demand. Short-term reliance on imports will persist, including from emerging suppliers outside Southeast Asia and lower-tariff regions like Malaysia. However, uncertainty from trade barriers and sluggish domestic capacity expansion have created a minor module supply gap, potentially slowing solar market growth.
Sustaining U.S. PV growth requires not only tracking import policies but also evaluating the stability of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) subsidies. Weakened IRA incentives could delay or cancel utility-scale projects. Additionally, evolving Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) rules—aimed at blocking Chinese-funded firms from IRA benefits for U.S.-based production—may reshape investment decisions for PV manufacturers and system developers.
U.S. PV demand is estimated at 38-42 GW in 2024, with 2025 projections at 36-44 GW. Policy risks and market competition shifts are expected to temper near-term growth momentum.
US energy storage market: steady growth momentum in the FTM segment
While the PV market faces uncertainties, the U.S. energy storage sector shows steadier growth. Aligned with the COP29 global energy storage roadmap targeting 1,500 GW by 2030 (a sixfold increase from 2022), the U.S. remains a key driver of this expansion.
Front-of-the-meter (FTM) systems dominate the U.S. market, comprising over 90% of installed capacity. In 2024, California and Texas led installations—together accounting for 65% of the national total—followed by Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. California’s average storage duration of 4.0 hours exceeded the national average of 3.1 hours, while Texas maintained a shorter 1.7-hour duration (unchanged from 2023). Despite this, Texas emerged as one of the fastest-growing markets due to a surge in operational projects.
The U.S. energy storage market’s growth is propelled by three key drivers:
Federal incentives: Standalone energy storage systems (ESS) qualify for a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
State-level initiatives: Regulatory bodies like California’s CEC and Texas’s PUCT actively prioritize storage deployment.
Grid stability needs: Rising renewable energy adoption positions storage as critical for balancing power networks.
Looking to 2025, market uncertainties loom as potential post-election policy shifts (e.g., IRA revisions under a Trump administration) may disrupt incentives. Conversely, escalating tariffs could accelerate installations. InfoLink forecasts sustained growth but increasing market fragmentation, with large-scale utility projects and long-duration storage tech emerging as pivotal growth areas.
Emerging markets on the rise: global support for PV and energy storage
While U.S. market growth may decelerate, Europe’s PV and energy storage demand is projected to remain stable, anchored by long-term energy transition commitments. Globally, 2025 will see emerging markets become pivotal growth engines:
Middle East & India:
PV demand in both regions is forecast to grow 30%-50% annually in 2025.
Energy storage: The Middle East anticipates >300% yearly growth, potentially hitting 13 GWh in installations this year. India, though nascent, shows rising project tenders and long-term potential as mandatory storage policies take shape.
Southeast Asia & Africa:
Steady green energy investments are boosting PV and storage adoption, though growth rates trail Middle Eastern dynamism.
These emerging markets are poised to counterbalance U.S. policy-driven demand volatility, sustaining global energy transition momentum. Companies should prioritize tracking policy shifts, refining market entry strategies, and capitalizing on high-growth regions to secure competitive advantages.